April 17,1995

TANSU CILLER GOES TO WASHINGTON

By Professor Michael C. Geokas

Turkey's Prime Minister will travel to Washington on April 18, 1995, ostensibly to justify to President Clinton and to US Congress the dire necessity for the unlawful and embarrassing bloody expedition against the Kurdish people in Northern Iraq, but her hasty visit has most probably a dual purpose:

-To do damage control (as one Woman Fire-Department dispatched by the Generals) because of Turkey's gross violations of human rights and blatant disregard of International Law,by the arrogant invasion of Northern Iraq, an area supposedly under the protection of the UN and the United States. The stated purpose of this invasion has been to kill about 2,500 PKK guerrillas(whom she calls terrorists) but its covert goal is, the control of oil facilities in Northern Iraq.

-To ask for compensation(with a smile) for lost revenues from the cutoff of the oil pipeline to Iraq, buttressed by alarmist warnings and projections about the rise of anti-Western Fundamentalists in Turkey. She will probably emphasize again the worn out myth, that Turkey is an effective bulwark against dictators, terrorists, and Islamic radicals and a veritable secular democracy. She will probably try to enlist America's help for entry into the European Union, by overcoming the resistance from most of its members. In a recent interview the Prime Minister said: "If our European friends reject us on the grounds that we come from a different religion, then they will make themselves a Christian Club, and there will be a confrontation in the world"(in other words...apocalypse now).

Here are some of the solid facts, that President Clinton and the members of US Congress should keep in mind, when they meet with the Prime Minister:

-Tansu Ciller is intelligent, personable and articulate but a very weak Prime Minister, dominated by the military. According to Mesut Yilmaz, head of the opposition Motherland Party "she is a national disaster; she does not have the experience,the ability or the team to run the country". She was made Prime Minister as an attractive gesture to the West, because she studied in America and because she is a woman in a Moslem society. During a previous visit to Washington in October 1993, she astonished the Administration with her overt threat to not extend Turkey's agreement to permit airfields and supply routes, to be used for Operation Provide Comfort, if adequate compensation was not provided by the US.This was called by William Safire in the New York Times,"beyond realpolitik,real blackmail",in an Essay entitled: "Ally for Sale".

-Turkey never was and will never be in the near future, a true secular democracy. That is the only country in the world where a coup by the military is announced in advance,by "a memorandum" to all political parties. A true democracy does not tolerate the enormous human rights violations,the Kurdish killing fields, unpunished killings of journalists,razing to the ground of 1,494 villages in Kurdistan, summary executions, disappearances and tortures, and the trying and jailing of eight Kurdish members of Parliament on flimsy charges of spreading "separatist propaganda".

Turkey never was and will never be a model state in the Middle east or within the Moslem world, due to the enduring heavy antipathy and distrust against her, from subject peoples of the Ottoman Empire.Eric Rouleau, a pro-Turkish former French Ambassador to Ankara, emphasizes that palpable mutual suspicion between Turkey and Middle Eastern nations persists, even seventy years after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey's control of the Euphrates and Tigris headwaters by a series of dams, will certainly increase tensions with Syria and Iraq, who fear its use for political manipulation. Thus, it is crystal clear that there are only two genuine Parliamentary democracies in that part of the World: Greece and Israel.

-Turkey is not now and will never be a bulwark against Islamic Fundamentalism.This is dangerous wishful thinking in the West. Turkey's burgeoning population(98.7 million at 2025) will be then 87 per cent urban, with brisk influx of conservative people from rural areas to the cities and right into the arms of the Welfare Party(Refah Partisi, in Turkish) of Necmetin Erbakan, which now controls the City Halls in Ankara, Istanbul and 29 other major towns and 400 smaller ones. About two thirds of the country's population resides in areas controlled by the Fundamentalists,with opinion polls giving them 22 to 25 per cent of the voters and 30 per cent needed to take over the government. No other political party can compete with the grassroots activity of the Welfare Party, whose hard work is done with modern techniques, according to Octay Eksi of the Hurriyet. They enjoy the aura of honesty and clean hands. A revived interest on Ataturk, promoted by a private group,is no match for the feverish determination of the Fundamentalists,who are supported financially by radical Turks in Western Europe, prompted by perceived discrimination and amorality around them.

-Turkey's main problems today are economic.Tansu Ciller has presided over a plummeting Turkish lira,an annual inflation rate of 150 per cent,and a national debt of 62 billion. About $500 million per year and $8 billion so far, have been spend on the Kurdish conflict. Turkey's covert reason for invading Kurdish Iraq is for control of oil facilities there(about 20 miles of pipeline adjacent to Fishkabour, which is not under the authority of Saddam). The Generals are eager to cooperate with Saddam and to do the indispensable work for him. This is why the Turkish forces intend to stay in Iraq. And here lies the rub. Tansu Ciller will attempt to persuade the Americans that Turkish forces should stay in Kurdish Iraq for the time being. Similarly, the Turkish army has been occupying 40 per cent of Cyprus for more than twenty years and has gotten away with it.

It is this glaring lack of respect for the Rule of Law and for International borders that is most disturbing about Turkey.This is striking evidence of Turkey's "Ottoman Ambitions" and explains the endless threats against Greece,about the Aegean Islands, the continental shelf, and the 12-mile zone and the constant violations of Greece's airspace, in defiance of the Sea Convention in 1982 and of other Treaties.

Because of these considerations, President Clinton should consider the following:

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-He should ignore the advise of Foggy Bottom and should instead "Read the Riot Act" to the Prime Minister. He should demand the immediate withdrawal of Turkish forces from Iraq.This will best serve the interests of the United States. The invasion of Cyprus and of Kurdish Iraq, by a NATO power armed by America, has made a mockery of the Rule of Law and creates a terrible precedent.

-He should strongly urge Tansu Ciller to pursue a negotiated solution for the Kurdish nightmare. Fourteen million Kurds in Turkey and 400,000 in Germany, cannot just disappear or suddenly become deaf-mutes, for Turkey's convenience.

-He should order direct contacts with the leadership of the Welfare Party and with Kurdish Fractions in Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Germany,using a team of powerful personal envoys such as: General Colin Powell, Senator Sam Nunn and Dr. John Brademas. They could concentrate like a laser beam, on moderation and reconciliation by all sides, to achieve a negotiated solution of the Kurdish war and stop the hemorrhage of the Turkish economy.

-He should demand the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Cyprus, as first step for rapprochement and for high level negotiations with Greece, leading to reduction of tensions in the Aegean and to fostering of good will and enhanced trade with the Greeks. Turkey's entry into the European Union(EU) is not in the cards, because the EU partners will not commit "hara-kiri" by opening the floodgates, to Turkey's unemployed millions and this has nothing to do with a Christian Club for Europeans.Instead,it is because of the galloping demographic forces now on track, that Europe's attitude would have been exactly the same,even if Turkey was inhabited by Eskimoes. Tansu Ciller does not get it.

-The President could direct the Treasury to coordinate the development of a bailout plan for Turkey,(to involve the US,the EU, Japan, Saudi Arabia and others).Finally, Turkey's failure to solve the Kurdish crisis with accommodation for the Kurds; the absence of initiatives to boost her economy, and improve relations with Greece and withdraw from Cyprus; will propel her into a downhill course and Turkey will become a huge intractable problem for the West, especially for the United States.

4-17-1995

Michael C. Geokas,M.D.,M.Sc.,Ph.D.

(Em) Professor of Medicine and Biological

Chemistry, UC,Davis School of Medicine

E-Mail: geokas@msn.com

FAX: 925\946-1987

Sources:-Gunter M.M. The Kurds in Turkey,A Political Dilemma. West View Press, Boulder Colorado,1990.

-White J.B. Islam and Democracy: The Turkish Experience. Current History, 94:7-12,1995.

-Rouleau E.The Challenges to Turkey. Foreign Affairs, 72(5):110-126, 1993.

-Safire W. Ally for Sale, New York Times,Thursday,October 28,1993.

-Hedges C. Turks Plan to Keep 35,000 Troops in Iraq. New York Times Friday, March 24,1995.

-Greenhouse S. U.S. Cools Toward Turks' Anti-Kurd Drive. New York Times,Wednesday March 29, 1995.

-Turkey Crosses a Line.Editorial. New York Times Thursday March 23, 1995.

-Safire W. Stop the Turks.New York Times, Thursday March 30,1995.

-Darnton J. Discontent Seethes in Once-Stable Turkey.New York Times

Thursday March 2, 1995.

Published In: The Greek-American ,April 22-28, 1995

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